What we believe about markets
These convictions underpin everything: strategy, positioning, hold periods, and how we think about risk.
Markets move in cycles, not lines.
Recurring patterns driven by debt cycles, central bank policy, demographics, and technology adoption compound across multiple timeframes.
The best opportunities require patience.
Cycle setups that produce asymmetric returns happen rarely. Recognizing them requires waiting for multiple cycles to align.
Activity is the enemy of returns.
The greatest sin in investing is manufacturing trades when no opportunity exists. We do less, not more.
Capital preservation enables compounding.
A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover. The math of compounding strongly favors investors who avoid catastrophic losses.
Four cycle-based strategies
Central Bank Divergences
Currency pairs at policy-cycle extremes where multi-year mean reversion is structurally probable.
Gold / Silver Ratio
Mean reversion setups at multi-decade extremes in the gold-silver ratio.
Bitcoin Halving Cycle
Systematic positioning around Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle. The most predictable cycle in any liquid asset.
Crisis Accumulation
Equity and real asset accumulation when the Cycle Compass signals maximum regime stress.
Recent writing
The Long-Term Debt Cycle: Where Are We?
Understanding the structural forces driving the current macro regime — and what history suggests comes next.
Late-Cycle Signals Accumulating
Three indicators flashed this week. Cycle Compass: LATE CYCLE with high confidence.
History Rhymes: 1937 and 2026
The structural parallels between the current environment and 1937 are striking — and instructive.
Follow the experiment.
We are not accepting outside capital. But we publish our framework, our Cycle Compass readings, and our thinking publicly. No predictions. No hype. Just the work.