Long Cycle
Capital
Patience compounds.
Strategy

High-conviction setups at cycle convergence.

Four strategy areas. Each defined by specific cycle-based entry criteria. No discretion — the framework decides.

5–10
Positions per year
2–5×
Typical leverage
5%
Max risk per trade
15%
Max concurrent risk
01
Currency

Central Bank Policy Divergences

We trade currency pairs when central bank policy cycles diverge significantly, typically at multi-year extremes. Entry criteria require both fundamental cycle confirmation and technical setup alignment. Typical hold: 6–18 months.

02
Metals

Gold / Silver Ratio Mean Reversion

The gold-silver ratio has mean-reverted from extremes reliably across every decade of data. We position when the ratio reaches multi-year extremes, sizing based on historical deviation magnitude.

03
Digital

Bitcoin Halving Cycle

Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle is the most structurally predictable cycle in any liquid asset class. We position systematically in the 12 months following each halving event, sizing relative to cycle phase confidence.

04
Crisis

Crisis-Period Accumulation

When the Cycle Compass signals maximum stress, we accumulate equity and real asset positions. These setups require maximum patience. Often 12–24 months of uncomfortable positioning before mean reversion begins.

On position sizing. All four strategies share a unified risk framework. Maximum 5% of capital at risk per position. Maximum 15% concurrent risk across all open positions. Leverage is a tool for capturing asymmetric setups, not for manufacturing returns where the cycle does not support them.