Research

Long-form analysis. Framework-oriented. No predictions.

Essays, regime briefings, and annual letters. Written for readers who think in cycles.

Regime Briefing

May 16, 2026

Late-Cycle Signals Accumulating

Current regime: LATE CYCLE at 0.82 confidence. Three Tier 1 indicators moved into warning territory this week.

Observer's Only

Regime Briefing

May 9, 2026

Dollar Strength Index Approaching Extreme

DXY at 104.8, approaching levels that have historically preceded multi-year reversals in currency cycles.

Observer's Only

Quarterly Essay

Q3 2026

The Long-Term Debt Cycle: Where Are We?

Understanding the structural forces driving the current macro regime — and what history suggests comes next for sovereign debt markets.

18 min

Quarterly Essay

Q2 2026

What the Compass Would Have Said

A 25-year retrospective on the Cycle Compass framework. Three real recessions caught. Five false alarms filtered. One structural rule that made the difference.

18 min

Quarterly Essay

Q1 2026

History Rhymes: 1937 and 2026

The structural parallels between the current environment and 1937 are striking — and instructive for positioning through the next phase.

22 min

Annual Letter

January 2026

2025: A Year of Positioning

Our inaugural annual letter. What we built, what we learned, and why we believe the next five years will reward patience.

10 min

The full research archive — including all prior regime briefings and founder notes — is available in the LP Dashboard.